As spin games have become more popular, more and more sites have started to offer them. However, apart from the fact that most of the time, these games are collectively lumped under the name ‘spin & go,’ there can be quite a big difference between similar types of games on different sites. This difference can mean a significant gap in the profits made over the long term.
In a game where even the best players can make a relatively small edge on the field, rake is extremely important, as is the amount of rake that can be recovered.
The fact that the rake on one site is lower than on another site for similar games does not necessarily mean that it is more profitable to play there. You also need to look at how much of the rake you pay is returned in the form of rakeback. The ‘effective rake’ (rake minus rakeback) is essentially the amount that is sure to be lost for each game.
Therefore, it is crucial to calculate the number of games you can play per month in advance, as this might affect your VIP level, which will determine to a large extent, the rakeback you will receive. It is also essential to factor in the bonuses.
If we know the approximate rakeback we can achieve in each site, we can calculate exactly what our effective rake will be and decide which site is worth playing at.
A top jackpot is a head-turner for everyone because it’s a life-changing amount of money. However, the thrill of being credited with such a large amount of money is something very few people experience. Top jackpots should therefore be handled appropriately.
More critical for predictability are the number of smaller, frequent multipliers that occur, as these are the ones we will encounter most often. A multiplier with 1,000 in 1,000,000 odds is one that can realistically happen every month. Playing 5,000 games a month as a beginner is far from impossible if you play the fastest games like flash or nitro, so there is a good chance of winning a multiplier of that size monthly.
In terms of monthly earnings, a rare top jackpot like the 12,000x prize pool multiplier on Pokerstars is not even worth including. After all, you’re likely to see a tournament like this on average once in every 1,000,000 games played. Even then, there’s the possibility of finishing in second or third place with a multiplier of “only” 1,000x.
The situation is even worse if you look at the odds of Winamax Expresso, where you will see a Top JP 0.2-4 times per 1,000,000 games, depending on the game you are playing.
2 euro games with a top JP once in 10,000,000 games have a multiplier of 500,000x, while 100 euro games have a multiplier of 10,000x for winning a top JP. With the odds of 4 out of 1,000,000, the top jackpots are still very rare to be considered when calculating one’s winrate. Statistically, even if you play 20k games a month, it would take more than a year to see one of these multipliers, and you still have to win it. On the other hand, the share of these top jackpots from the overall prize pool is significant enough to reduce the prizes of more frequent multipliers significantly.
On 10 euro games, the 100,000x multiplier occurs 0.4 times out of 1 million games. In the long run, your payout will be about 100,000/3=33,333 buy-in. So basically, after playing 4 million games, you should receive 33,333 BI if everything goes right. Over 1 million games, you would potentially earn 13,333 BI, but that’s far too many games to include in the winrate. So, on Winamax, 1.33% of your entry is essentially lost when you register in a spin&go. That’s also a similar case for the second biggest jackpot with an occurrence of 1:100.000, which accounts for another -0.33% ROI on most stakes in the short run.
Accordingly, rather than being blinded by the massive jackpots, it’s worth looking at what proportion of the total pool each multiplier represents and then choosing the fitting room for you. It’s best if the top JP and the highest multipliers occur as infrequently as possible and have a smaller share of the prize pool.
It’s best if games with a probability of more than 1 in 1000 occur as often as possible because this reduces the variance as much as possible. UNIBET and 888 are good sites in this respect.
Top jackpots on Winamax, GG, and PokerStars are so rare that it is advisable to exclude them from the available winrate. If you are not someone who plays tens of thousands of spin &gos every month, you probably have to exclude the second or even the third biggest jackpots when calculating your winrate.
Of course, a higher effective rake or a worse jackpot structure can be more than offset by a much easier field on a site. Regional sites are in a relatively advantageous position in this aspect. An additional advantage can be if there is a sufficient number of games to play on a given site, and multi-table play is not hindered by a lack of players or technical problems with the site.
Another important aspect to be aware of is that in some smaller sites, several bots are playing, which should be avoided.
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